the last four times i’ve walked down the stairs to a PATH station i’ve arrived at a train pulling in, or having just pulled into the station, and i’ve gotten on, without any waiting on the platform ¹. this of couse called for a little, evaluating. the times this occurred, two times manhattan-bound around 10:15 and 8:45 and home-bound at 10:30 and 8:45 (AM and PM where they should be) and, the time between trains respectivly: every 4-5 minutes, every 10 minutes, every 15 minutes, and every 10 minutes. assuming that we give a one minute window of ‘catching’ your train when you walk into the station, in order my chances for ‘catching’ my train should have been: 1 in 4, 1 in 10, 1 in 15 and 1 in 10 (randomness being randomness i should ‘catch’ my train 25% of the time if it comes every 4 minutes) that puts my recent 4 for 4 streak at 1 in 1501 . normal joe office worker working 9:00 to 5:30 (that 30 min lunch being unpaid of course) living at my stop ( train times, 4-5 minutes in the morning, every 5 minutes in the evening), and working in lower-midtown-ish manhattan has a daily 1 in 10 chance that he/she will ‘score’ on their inbound and outbound trip in any one day. four times in row (two morings and two evenings) though would be 1 in 100. im not a statistician in the least, but i’m guessing that i’ll have plenty of twenty-nine minute late night waits in the near-near future ².

PATH Schedule (PDF)

¹ waiting on the platform allows sorting out of the ipod and beginning/choosing some reading of some sort, so it’s not all bad
² the twenty-nine minute wait occurs when you arrive to the train as it pulls out of the station late at night, leads to unwise sitting on the floor

Written by admin (contact).

It was written on February 24th, 2005 at 1:39 am
Filed in the Category orphan