"bad [PATH] luck coming"
the last four times i’ve walked down the stairs to a PATH station i’ve arrived at a train pulling in, or having just pulled into the station, and i’ve gotten on, without any waiting on the platform 1. this of couse called for a little, evaluating. the times this occurred, two times manhattan-bound around 10:15 and 8:45 and home-bound at 10:30 and 8:45 (AM and PM where they should be) and, the time between trains respectivly: every 4-5 minutes, every 10 minutes, every 15 minutes, and every 10 minutes. assuming that we give a one minute window of ‘catching’ your train when you walk into the station, in order my chances for ‘catching’ my train should have been: 1 in 4, 1 in 10, 1 in 15 and 1 in 10 (randomness being randomness i should ‘catch’ my train 25% of the time if it comes every 4 minutes) that puts my recent 4 for 4 streak at 1 in 1501 . normal joe office worker working 9:00 to 5:30 (that 30 min lunch being unpaid of course) living at my stop ( train times, 4-5 minutes in the morning, every 5 minutes in the evening), and working in lower-midtown-ish manhattan has a daily 1 in 10 chance that he/she will ’score’ on their inbound and outbound trip in any one day. four times in row (two morings and two evenings) though would be 1 in 100. im not a statistician in the least, but i’m guessing that i’ll have plenty of twenty-nine minute late night waits in the near-near future 2.
1 waiting on the platform allows sorting out of the ipod and beginning/choosing some reading of some sort, so it’s not all bad
2 the twenty-nine minute wait occurs when you arrive to the train as it pulls out of the station late at night, leads to unwise sitting on the floor
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Written by sean (contact).
It was written on February 24th, 2005 at 1:39 am
Filed in the Category orphan